Aizawl | July 08, 2020: Nakkum February thlaah hri pui leng mek coronavirus pandemic hi a invenna hmuh chhuah a la nih loh chuan India ram hi a tuar nasa ber ram a ni dawn, tih MIT ( Massachusetts Institute of Technology) zir chianna chuan a tar lang. Ram 84 te dinhmun, Khawvel mihring 60% te awmna, tun hnaite-a MIT mithiamte zir chianna chuan February 2021 tawp lamah chuan India ramah nitin mi 2.87 lakh in hri pui coronavirus kai zel thei dinhmunah an ding ang, a ti.
MIT mithiam (researchers) te chu Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim, John Sterman te niin MIT a Sloan School of Management hian an thil zir chianna atan hian SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, an hmang a, chu chu hri lama mithiam epidemiologist te pawhin an hman țhin, hri kai chhiar kawp dan hmanga chhut chhuahna dan (standard mathematical model for infectious diseases used by epidemiologists, for their analysis) a ni. An ni hian Khawvel puma COVID-19 hri kai tur zat an chhut chhuah lawk chu 20 crore ațanga 60 crore nakkum March - May 2021 velah hri kai hi tling turah an ngai a, hei hi a enkawlna leh invenna damdawi hmuh chhuah a nih loh chuan tih an zir chianna chuan a ti.
An zir chianna ang chuan India ram hi Coronavirus țaidarh leh kai tam berna tur a ni. Ni khatah mi 2.87 lakh kai thei dinhmunah a awm a. A dawtah United States - nitin kai 95,000, South Africa 21,000, Iran nitin 17,000 February 2021 thla tawp lamah chuan ni thei tawh turin an chhut chhuak a ni.
An zir chianna hi kawng thumin an țhen a, hetiangin :
1) tuna hri kai test mek dan leh chumiin a hrin chhuah hri kai hmuh chhuah dan ațangin.
2) hri kai test hi July 1, 2020 ațanga 0.1% a nitin tih pun a nihin.
3) tuna hri kai test dan pangngai ang zata test anih hian hri kai tawhin hmuh chhuah anih hma hian midang 8 hnena kai chhawng tur anga chhut a ni.
Hri kai rinhlelhawm te rang taka enfiah zung zung hian hri darh tur nasa taka a tih hniam a, test a hmuh chhuah a chak loh chuan hri kai tih hriat loh ten midangte hnenah nasa takin hri hi an hnawih pherh theih thu he zir chianna hian a sawi a, chu chuan thihna tam tak a thlen thei a ni a ti bawk.
An zir chianna thil lo thleng tur an sawi lawkna hmasa ( first scenario) ang chuan ram 84 ațang hian hri kai mihring 1.55 billion an awm ang. Mahse heng ram te hian hri kai enfiah (sample test) tuna an kalpui mek aia nitin 0.1% an tih pun chuan hri kai thei tur zat hi 1.37 billion a ni ang tih an sawilawkna hnuhnung ( second scenario) zawk chuan a ti.
"Heng an sawilawkna pahnih te ațanga thlir hian kumin favang chho September-November 2020 ah hi chuan hri kai pawh tam hman hle tura ngaih leh phurrit tak tur a ni tawh ang a, ram tlem teah chauh pawh hri kai enkawl ngai mi maktaduai za tel teh meuh awm thei tawh tura ngaih a ni. Chung zingah chuan hri mipuiten an dawnsawn leh hma chhawn dan fel leh țhat tawk loh avanga hri thehdarh awlsamna India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, USA te dinhmun chu ngaihtuahawm tak a ni thei. Amaherawhchu, hri kai enkawlna leh dawnsawn dan ruahmanna thlak leh ruahmanna thar siam anih erawh chuan nasa taka inthlak thei chu a ni, " tih he zir chianna hian a sawi a ni.
Hri kai enfiahna hi mar pata kalpui dan pang ngai anga kalpui zel anih chuan hri kai hmuh chhuahin midang a kai leh, kai thei tura a khawih hi mi 8 anga chhut chhuah a ni a, chutiang anih chuan hri kai leh thihpui tur pawh nasa taka tla hniam thei a nih thu a sawi bawk. An sawi lawkna pathumna ang chuan Khawvel pumpuia hri kai hi mi 60 crore vel tura chhut chhuah a ni.
Engpawhnise, India ram tana an sawi leh hmuh lawk erawh hi chu a țha lem lo hle a. An zir chianna in a sawi dan chuan khawi ram pawh mipuiten he hri pui an hma chhawn leh dawnsawn dan fel lo, dik tawk lo leh buarchuar tamna ram apiangah hri hi an hma chhawn nasa dawn tih a tar lang a ni.
Hri kai thunun turin a vei hmuh chhuah chak a, midangte kai darh thei lo tura dah hran zung zung a țul a, chu chu mipuite rilru inhawn dan leh Sorkar hma lak danah thui tak a innghat a ni.
MIT research in a sawi lan zel chu Covid-19 hri kai zat tur leh thihpui zat tur chungchang an sawi hi a ni. "Kan chhut lawk tawhna ang chuan Khawvel pumah June 18, 2020 thleng khan hri kai 8.85 million awm tur leh thihpui pawh 6 lakh tling hman tur a ni a. Hetih chhung hian 11.8 million a tling hman a, kan chhut lawk aiin a number hi a tam zawk a ni," tih tar lan a ni.
Johns Hopkins University in June 18, 2020 khawvela coronavirus hri kai tawh zat official a a puan chu 8.24 million a ni a, hri vanga thi pawh 4,54,610 a ni.
Source :
India Today Web Desk
July 7, 2020
@ 22:54 IST
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